El Condor Pasa was key that led to Derby hero Workforce

7 thoughts on “El Condor Pasa was key that led to Derby hero Workforce”

  1. The Kings Best stats are very interesting. However without knowing how many mares by Sadler’s Wells and how many mares by sons of Sadlers Well’s he has been bred to one can’t really make a judgement.

    The fact that nearly 30% of his black type winners have come from this type of mating could point to something although without knowing what percentage of his matings fall into this category we can’t be sure.

    In addition mares by Sadler’s Wells (and sons of) are likely to be of higher quality (on average) than the standard mare sent to King’s Best.

    Having said that I recommended Creachadoir and Spice Route in my first published list of suggested yearling purchases. So I tend to agree with these findings all though perhaps from a slightly different perspective.

  2. Varola, I don’t think—and you can re-read the article—that i was making any statistical assumptions. In contrast, I was just noting some observations: That the El Condor Pasa mating in ’95 has led to many more copycats. I just happened to mention some of the successful ones, but the concept is as easily applicable to the ones that didn’t produces stakes winners.

    However, as a “nick,” my opinions are different than yours: I feel it’s a general barometer; that whenever a high-class performer has been produced between sire-line crosses, there exists the chance that it may be reproduced; and it’s one of many factors to consider in the overall success of the horse. Here’s a baseball analogy that I use: a hitter may only be batting .230 against a certain pitcher (low percentage), but he has, say, several home runs against him (several G1 winners), whereas another hitter may be batting .290 against him but has never hit the home run against him (sire of Listed and G3 winners). Stats may say the .290 hitter looks better on paper; analysis shows the .230 hitter, when he connects, gets better results. Depending on what I’m looking for, I may use the low-percentage/high reward hitter vs the other guy without power. Some of this may also be dictated by the field alignment (other parts of pedigree) and the type of situation (breeding for a classic winner? or winning run on 1st, bottom of 9th, 2 out, bases loaded.).

    PS There are enough horses, such as Pivotal, Green Desert, Cape Cross, Danehill Dancer, Darshaan, etc., that have similar quality pedigree to those of sons of Sadler’s Wells.

  3. Sir Michael Stoute, one of the best living conditioners, has scored his fifth Derby victory with Workforce.

    Not counting Sir Percy (who sustained an injury in the Derby), Stoute’s Kris Kin and North Light were arguably the weakest Epsom Derby winners of this decade, out of arguably the two weakest (male) Anglo-Irish crops.
    Given that St. Nicholas Abbey is still not more than a promise, Cape Blanco flattened out in Chantilly and Jan Vermeer couldn’t have outrun that trademark Milkmaid last Saturday (or his own pacemaker, for that matter), I wonder if Workforce really is as great as he looked – wow!- or if Stoute once again took full advantage of a sub-par vintage.

  4. Interesting thoughts as usual, Malcer. I suppose the time is the barometer here if the winning margin is not. Or until he faces older in the King George—or loses to comtemporaries before then. Time, Malcer, will tell.

  5. Varola

    According to the Jockey Club data.

    King’s Best with mares by sons of Sadler’s Wells – 46 foals, 28 (60.9%) runners, 13 (28.3%) winners, 4 (8.7%) SW

    King’s Best with Sadler’s Wells mares – 109 foals, 72 (66.1%) runners, 34 (31.2%) winners, 5 (4.6%) SW.

  6. Sid, as an englishman and former keen cricketer I loved reading your baseball analogy. It seems a sport with lots of stats and little bit more action than its english counterpart. You may not be aware that cricket in an attempt to keep up in the modern world has introduced a 3 hour version of the game, rather than 3 day,which is incredibly popular in India.

    I think I’ll start looking at the baseball section of your blog.

    ps point taken about you not making any statistical assumptions.

    Luckily Ab Abolendam is on hand and interestingly it seems King’s Best does better with mares by sons of rather than by Sadler’s Wells.

  7. Varola, yes, I join you in thanking Ab for the stats. Very interesting, indeed, but I’m wondering whether they include stats from the SH too. John Sparkman noted that King’s Best has 3% stakes winners from foals overall (including SH), and the sheer number of Sadler’s Wells mares and mares by sons makes me wonder about SH.

    Did not know that about cricket!

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