Sea the Stars rating doesn’t properly compute Youmzain

12 thoughts on “Sea the Stars rating doesn’t properly compute Youmzain”

  1. I agree with you that Youmzain runs better at Longchamp than elsewhere, but it still makes no difference to the level of the form. The fact that he finished in a heap with Cavalryman and Conduit, both at best 130-131 horses, with Dar Re Mi a length behind just means that he runs to his best form, around 131, 132, at Longchamp. It does not mean that he runs to 135 or 136 at Longchamp.

    The form for most of the horses in the Arc works out very well with their previous form, including Sea The Stars. I’ll give him credit for getting out of trouble, but frankly, if you look back at previous Arcs, there are many, many winners who have come from similar positions in the stretch, Zarkava last year included, though at least she didn’t pull so hard early.

    Sea The Stars is a great horse, but just because Youmzain runs his best at Longchamp doesn’t make Sea The Stars any better if Youmzain’s best is 132, absolute tops (actually 131 on form in each Arc is more accurate compared to the other horses in the field, not just the winner). It’s not like Youmzain runs to 135 or 136 at Longchamp….sorry….but it’s just not there on the form book.

  2. John, now i know why they call you the curmudgeon!

    In my opinion, i actually think Youmzain jumps way up at Longchamp and runs 134, and that Zarkava is underrated on the form book, but that’s my opinion. Together, STS and Zarkava have won 2 Arcs and 15 of 16 races. Not every horse makes the transition to the Arc at the end of the year, and not every horse runs to form, but the winning machines always get credit with me.

    As with your posts on STS, it makes for interesting discussions.

  3. I don’t disgree that Youmzain has an affinity for the course, but a probably even more important factor is that the Jaber Abdullah/ Mick Channon tandem really seem to know how to prep a horse for the big race (the Fabre Factor).

    Btw, four seasons of high-class performances without injuries, I really hope he’ll be successful at stud.

  4. Sid said: “John, now i know why they call you the curmudgeon!

    In my opinion, i actually think Youmzain jumps way up at Longchamp and runs 134,”

    Actually I would strongly argue here that I’m just being a realist, not a curmudgeion! LOL

    The problem with that belief is that it means you also have to believe that every one of the 8 or 9 horses that finished within a length of him in 3 arcs ALSO ran 3 to 5 pounds better in the Arc than they had ever run in their lives. That simply is not realistic in my opinion. You can’t just single out Youmzain from the form of the horses that finished on top of him.

    But then…opinions are what make horse racing. I’ve always remembered the old saw about the observer who simply didn’t “get” horse racing and said, “Everyone knows one horse can run faster than another!”….my answer…”Yeah, but which one?”

  5. Very good story about the old saw, John.

    Mind you, getting back to STS, that Timeform has Youmzain at 130 and Fame and Glory at 133, correctly in relation to each other, in my opinion, even though Fame and Glory was part of the crowd behind him in the Arc.

    In fact, if not for his LOngchamp form, I don’t see Youmzain within 6 lbs of Fame and Glory.

    If Timeform keeps STS at 140, I have no problem, because i think that’s where he does fit.

    Btw, he’s got an amazing constitution, doesn’t he?

  6. Yes I understand about Fame And Glory, but, from my point of view, it proves what I’m saying….Which meets the test of Occam’s Razor? That Fame And Glory ran several pounds below form in the Arc (I assure you that is what Ballydoyle thinks) or that every other horse in the top ten ran several pounds above their previous form relative to him?

  7. Also what i’m saying, too. they are grouped quite closely to each other, so any given race may see any of them within a group next to each other in any order, but Youmzain’s absolute consistency over 4 years elavates his form drastically.

  8. Interesting to read, John, that our esteemed friend Tony Morris writes from UK:

    “IT was only natural that the media coverage of Arc weekend should be dominated by the flawless performance of the colt whom all must now recognise as one of all-time greats of the Turf.”

    For another curmudgeon, that’s high praise, indeed!

  9. That is indeed high praise from Tony Morris, who is not given to hyperbole.

    I think you make a good argument, Sid. Certainly Youmzain is at his best at Longchamp, and it’s a shame he didn’t find a way to win one of them.

    Youmzain is a half-brother to a very nice horse in Creachadoir, too, a G1-winner or -placed in four countries. So I believe he does have some potential at stud.

  10. Sid,

    “with Sinndar as a sire and the race record he sports, he’ll probably stand cheaply as a NH horse.” – that was actually what I was driving at.

    It’s just sad that the 20th-best of perennial disappointment Forestry’s crop will probably sell for more than Youmzain’s #2. That says little about Youmzain and a lot about the breeding business (and about the unrealistic expectations a lot of buyers have).

    Who says a Sinndar horse (one with Sadler’s Wells as the damsire, no less) couldn’t produce a Big One. In any case, if your Youmzain horse falls short of being great (99+ % of any sire’s progeny do), there is a nice chance it might turn out to be a good or at least a decent, long-lasting one.

    And it’ll cost you a fraction of what you’ll pay for a Forestry (who also has never produced a great one, Discreet Cat being the only one to come close) or Unbridled’s Song (whose offspring will give you a good 2yo campaign and a tragic breakdown on the Triple Crown trail).

  11. Malcer, i agree. The Aga Khan, Wildensteins, etc., are not concerned with commercial considerations and frequently breed top horses from unfashionable lines. Sinndar himself is a great example, as a son of Grand Lodge from a Danzig strain that is not commercial; he won the Epsom and Irish Derbys and the Arc (7 for 8).

    How about the Wildenstein filly Pawneese, a dual Oaks and King George winner by Carvin, by Marino, by Worden? Ditto for their Arc winner All Along, by Targowice!

    Problem is that inexpensive sires rarely get enough opportunity because the mares they breed are, well, cheap, and very few sires that start cheap are able to turn it around. Sharpen Up did in Europe; Dynaformer ($2,500), Malibu Moon ($3,000) come to mind in the US.

    I hope Youmzain gets a chance.

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