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Analysis: Last 10 Kentucky Derby winners and their form at 2

When he won the Grade 1 Florida Derby Saturday, Take Charge Indy became the eighth individual Graded stakes winner of 2012 to exit the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile of last year. Plus several others, including the highly regarded Dullahan, have placed  in a Graded race this year, making the race about as formful as a race can get.

But will it have an impact on the Kentucky Derby?

Only Street Sense since the Breeders’ Cup began in 1984 has won the Derby (2007) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (2006), but more surprising is the recent trend for the Derby winner to have not raced in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

From the last 10 years, only 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird (12th in Juvenile of 2008) and Street Sense have contested the Juvenile.

Moreover, except for Street Sense, no Derby winner from this period won a Grade 1 race at 2, either. And only Super Saver won a Grade 2 race at 2.

No Derby winner during this period made his 2-year-old debut before July, either.

Here’s a summary of the 2-year-old records of the last 10 Derby winners:

1. Animal Kingdom (2010 Derby): 2-1-1-0, $33,800. Made debut 9/18.

2. Super Saver (2009): 4-2-1-0, $171,232. Made debut 8/22. Grade 2 winner at 2.

3. Mine That Bird (2008): 6-4-0-0, $304,381. Made debut 7/20. Grade 3 winner at 2, Canadian champion juvenile.

4. Big Brown (2007): 1-1-0-0, $37,800. Made debut 9/3.

5. Street Sense (2006): 5-2-1-2, $1,178,200. Made debut 7/9. Won Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup at 2.

6. Barbaro (2005): 2-2-0-0, $99,000. Made debut 10/4. Won a stakes at 2.

7. Giacomo (2004): 4-1-1-1, $119,440. Made debut 7/15. Grade-1 placed at 2.

8. Smarty Jones: 2-2-0-0, $49,620. Made debut 11/9. Won stakes at 2.

9. Funny Cide (2003): 3-3-0-0, $136,185. Made debut 9/8. Stakes winner at 2.

10. War Emblem (2002): 3-2-0-0, $36,000. Made debut 10/4.

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2 thoughts on “Analysis: Last 10 Kentucky Derby winners and their form at 2

    • i think every Derby winner except for maybe one has raced at 2, so that gives an indication that having a foundation at 2 is necessary. But what has happened the last 25 years or so with rise of what i call specialist 2-year-olds means classic types are not as successful at 2 as they once were and the records of recent Derby winners indicate this.

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